predictability

Predictability is a fundamental principle in public procurement that requires the entire process to be foreseeable and transparent for suppliers. While not listed as a standalone principle in EU Directive 2014/24/EU, predictability is embedded within the core principles of transparency and equal treatment that underpin the European procurement framework.

How does predictability work?

When a contracting authority publishes tender documents, it commits to following the rules it has set out. The award criteria stated in the notice must be the ones actually used in evaluation. Mandatory requirements cannot be waived after the submission deadline has passed.

The principle ensures that suppliers can assess in advance:

• What is being procured and the scope of the contract
• How the procedure will be conducted
• Which qualification requirements apply
• Which criteria will determine the contract award
• The duration of the contract and any options

Why is predictability important?

Predictability is closely linked to the principles of equal treatment and transparency. Together, they form the backbone of fair competition in public procurement. In practice, this means suppliers should be able to make informed decisions about participation based on the information provided by the contracting authority.

In Norway, predictability is explicitly codified as one of five fundamental principles in the Public Procurement Act § 4, alongside competition, equal treatment, verifiability, and proportionality. KOFA, the Norwegian complaints board, regularly reviews cases where contracting authorities have violated this principle — for example by using unclear award criteria or evaluating tenders differently from what the tender documents specified.

Tools like Cobrief can help suppliers analyse tender documents and identify ambiguities in the award criteria, enabling them to raise questions with the contracting authority before the deadline.

Predictability is the foundation of trust in public procurement. Without it, suppliers would lack the confidence to invest time and resources in preparing bids. For contracting authorities, it means a duty to be clear from the outset — and to follow through on what has been communicated throughout the procedure.